Economy is Under Pressure in Bangladesh!

Dr. Sikder Md. Anowarul Islam

The economy of Bangladesh is under pressure since devastating strike enforced by the opposition political parties with the demand of early election by majority voting power as a part of democratic rights. This demonstration is started from January 05, 2015 and ongoing so far.Every day, peoples of Bangladesh are losing 410.96 million dollar due to drastic political demonstration and programs. The GDP worth (2013) is 150.0 billion in current US$. But by three weeks political demonstration, the dead weight loss incurred by 8.22 billion US$. Per capita GNI was $1,010 (2013).Life expectancy is 70 at birth. Economic activities are shrinking and going to be collapsed without free movements of goods and services in different regions of Bangladesh. Undue violence is increasing, and human rights for productivity and development is under challenged to prevail the peaceful atmosphere in Bangladesh.

Export orders are also under pressure to materialize in due schedule. Export earnings by garments sectors and foreign remittance are the prime source of balance of payments in Bangladesh. Exports by percentage of GDP 16(2010),20(2011),20(2012) and 20(2013) respectively. It was steady in past 3 years from 2010. Negative trade balance will increase inflation and borrowings from the private savings, which will ultimately reduce private investment and accordingly economic growth and productivity. Deficit finance by the Government in nonproductive sector will reduce economic growth and productivity and economic trend of steady state economic growth will hamper drastically. The 1.5% deadweight loss in GDP growth and 1.5% trend of population growth in every year will capture the pie of the development activities, if the input of advanced technology is not encouraged for productivity especially for heavy industries. But labor incentive technology may improve income distribution in short run, but in long run, we need capital incentive technology. The initiative for capital incentive technology may be encouraged by now on.

The challenge for million development goal and middle income countries for Bangladesh will not be achieved, if the economic growth and productivity cannot reach by 8% in current fiscal year. The challenge for Bangladesh at present is to stabilize the economy by various political distortions. Democracy of Bangladesh is not going through by the majority voting power by participatory elections due to political disputes of major rolling and opposition parties.

The political situations over the past few decades after independence in1971 is mismatched by the politicians and military rollers for power games for their own political interest and philosophy. The structural adjustment has been made in 1984 as a part of transition to socialist led economy to market economy. Large scale private commercial banks and financial institutions has been denationalized and accordingly Government owned so called losing concerns (since it was nationalized after independence in 1971, as a spirit of independence for equity and justice)  are also offered to privatized again to boost the sustainable economic development.

The economy of Bangladesh is settled by the market economy and increasing trend of economic growth and productivity reduced the trend of poverty and accordingly improve the income distribution in Bangladesh.

The income share is captured by the highest 10 percent of the population is 27.0 and income share by lowest 10 percent is 4.0 in 2013. The income distribution by GINI coefficient is improved by 33.2 (2005) which is excellent for growth maximized productivity. The political democracy by majority voting is now a burning issue which is need to resolved by the democratic practice to escape from the global digester of anarchy and terrorism. (Data Source: World Bank)


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